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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/18 11:28

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans and wheat lead mixed trade at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is flat to lower with the Dow down 80. The dollar 
index is 15 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with 
crude up $0.05. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
down $2.80.


   Corn trade is 3 cents lower at midday with range-bound action continuing 
ahead of the weekend. Fresh bullish news lacking and light harvest pressure is 
noted. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress through the end of the 
week before wetter weather returns to the east with beans getting more 
attention this week. Ethanol futures are flat at midday keeping margins stable. 
Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. 
South American corn planting but is running behind normal with mixed weather 
views at this early juncture in the Southern Hemisphere growing season. The 
weekly export sales were soft at 368,800 metric tons. On the December contract 
support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.86 1/2; the market is flirting 
with the $3.92 10-day here at midday. Chart resistance is at the upper 
Bollinger Band at 4.02.


   Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday gaining back some of the noted 
long profit-taking losses seen earlier this week. Meal is $2.50 higher with 
soybean oil up 12 points. The soybean market is overbought and seeing 
consolidation after the September into October strength with the momentum into 
Monday following the friendly USDA report last week. Crush margins remain 
solidly positive. The ral has gained slightly against the dollar this week. 
Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll. South America 
should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with 
some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. The weekly 
export sales were strong at 1.6 million metric tons, 152,900 of meal, and 4,000 
pounds of oil. On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $9.28 with the 
upper Bollinger Band at $9.49 as resistance.


   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with light selling overnight 
after new highs were scored for the move on the back of Chicago strength. The 
Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 97 cents with trade hitting new highs 
again. Remaining spring wheat will likely not be cut at this point. The 
corn/HRW spread has widened back to 38 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, 
working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by 
Black Sea origin with more sales to Egypt and neighboring countries this week. 
The weekly export sales remained in the recent range at 395,100 metric tons. 
The December Kansas City chart support is the 10-day at $4.18 with the 100-day 
at 4.40 the next level up with the upper Bollinger Band right at overnight 
trade at $4.31.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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